Health Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change
The definition of heat-wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China
Qiaoxuan Lin, Lijun Wang, Ziqiang Lin, Peng Yin, Zhengjing Huang, Tao Liu, Jianpeng Xiao, Xing Li, Weilin Zeng, Shao Lin, Maigeng Zhou, Wenjun Ma
Published 2019-01-06
Cite as Chin J Prev Med, 2019, 53(1): 97-102. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.01.014
Abstract
ObjectiveTo identify the definition of heat wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China.
MethodsDaily mortality (from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention) and meteorological data (from National Meteorological Information Center in China) from 66 counties with a population of over 200 000 were collected from 2006-2011. With the consideration of climate type and administrative division, China was classified as seven regions. Firstly, distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality. Secondly, a multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects to explore the region-specific temperature threshold and the duration for definition of heat wave.
ResultsWe defined regional heat wave of Northeast, North, Northwest, East, Central and Southwest China as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperature higher than or equal to the P64, P71, P85, P67, P75 and P77 of warm season (May to October) temperature, respectively, while the thresholds of temperature were 21.6, 23.7, 24.3, 25.7, 28.0 and 25.3 ℃. The heat wave in South China was defined as five or more consecutive days with daily mean temperature higher than or equal to the P93 (30.4 ℃) of warm season (May to October) temperature.
ConclusionThe region-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide local government with the guidance of establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems to address the negative health outcomes due to heat wave.
Key words:
Temperature; Mortality; Heat wave; Ecological study
Contributor Information
Qiaoxuan Lin
Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
Lin Qiaoxuan is working on the Department of Health Information Resources, Guangzhou Center of Health Information, Guangzhou 510062, China
Lijun Wang
National Center for Chronic and Non Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Ziqiang Lin
Department of Environmental Health Science, School of Public Health, State University of New York at Albany, New York 12222, America
Peng Yin
National Center for Chronic and Non Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Zhengjing Huang
National Center for Chronic and Non Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Tao Liu
Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
Jianpeng Xiao
Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
Xing Li
Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
Weilin Zeng
Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
Shao Lin
Department of Environmental Health Science, School of Public Health, State University of New York at Albany, New York 12222, America
Maigeng Zhou
National Center for Chronic and Non Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Wenjun Ma
Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
