To describe the prevalence of heart failure in China and to explore the prospective association between smoking behavior and the risk of incident heart failure.

The subjects were from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and the baseline survey was conducted from June 2004 to July 2008. A total of 487 197 subjects were included in this study, after excluding those with missing BMI information, lost follow-up immediately after baseline investigation, and self-reported coronary heart disease, stroke, or malignant tumor at baseline. This study included data from baseline and follow-up until December 31, 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association between smoking behavior and the risk of heart failure.

The median follow-up time was 10.15 years, during which a total of 4 208 new cases of heart failure occurred, with a crude incidence rate of 0.87/1 000 person-years and a cumulative incidence rate of 0.86%. The higher the age at baseline, the higher the incidence of heart failure. The incidence of heart failure in high age group, rural area and male was higher than that in low age group, urban area and female population respectively. Compared with non-smokers, there was no significant difference in the risk of heart failure in occasional smokers (HR=1.05; 95%CI: 0.91-1.22), while former smokers (HR=1.48; 95%CI:1.31-1.67) and current smokers (HR=1.34;95%CI:1.22-1.49) increased risk. Former smokers (HR=1.33;95%CI:1.21-1.46) and current smokers (HR=1.46; 95%CI:1.31-1.64) had higher risk of heart failure than non-smokers or occasional smokers. No dose-response relationship was observed between the number of cigarettes smoked per day and the risk of heart failure in current and former smokers (for trend P=0.347 and 0.066). Compared with non-smokers or occasional smokers, the hazard ratios of <5, 5-, 10- and ≥20 years since quit smoking were 1.61 (95% CI: 1.36-1.92), 1.55 (95%CI: 1.27-1.90), 1.24 (95%CI: 1.02-1.51) and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.08-1.68), respectively (for trend P=0.091). The hazard ratios of quitting smoking due to disease and other reasons were 1.62 (95%CI:1.41-1.86) and 1.23 (95%CI: 1.04-1.45). Healthy smoking behaviors had a significant protective effect on heart failure compared with non-healthy smoking behaviors (HR=0.75, 95%CI:0.69-0.81). Area and family history of coronary heart disease, and the smoking behaviors interacted with the risk of heart failure (for all interactions were P<0.05).

The incidence of heart failure in China is higher in males than females, higher in rural areas than in urban areas, and increases with age. Both former smokers and current smokers had a higher risk of heart failure than nonsmokers or occasional smokers, regardless of the frequency, amount, duration, and reason for quitting. Smoking is an important risk factor for heart failure and comprehensive anti-smoking measures should be maintained.

Heart failure; Smoking behavior; Quit smoking