To analyze the risk factors of frequent gout flare, and to evaluate its susceptibility to identify patients with≥2 acute attacks per year.

A total of 579 of cases gout patients with no history of taking urate lowering treatment (ULT) in recent 12 months were enrolled. The patients were divided into frequent group (gout episodes≥twice per year) and non-frequent group(gout attacks<twice per year). The clinical information was collected and relevant biochemical indices were detected.

There were significant differences in involvement of upper limb joints, tophi, combining hypertension and renal stone between two groups. The two groups had no statistical differences in family history, gender, history of smoking and drinking, ratios of regular exercise, and combining diabetes, hepatic insufficiency, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, and overweight/obesity. There was significant differences in the number of joints involved, the history of disease duration, the level of SUA and TG[(4.66±2.54) vs (2.77±1.64), (6.68±5.11) vs (5.14±3.89) years, (525.82±132.11) vs (489.33±139.81) μmol/L, (2.51±1.94) vs (2.05±1.22) mmol/L, P<0.05 orP<0.01]; There were no statistical differences in age of onset, SBP, DBP, age of initial diagnosis, fasting blood glucose, TC, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, AST, ALT, body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio.Logistic regression analysis indicated that a large number of joints involved and higher serum uric acid level were risk factors of frequent gout attacks. The ROC curve showed that the number of joints involved had qualified performance in identifying patients with frequent gout attacks. When the number of joints involved was >2, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 77.8%, 43.3%, 85.6%, and 56.6%, respectively, and the difference was significant.

Higher SUA and a larger number of joints involved associate independently with frequent gout attacks. The number of joints involved at initial diagnosis>2, which can predict the frequent flare, and start ULT as earlier as possible. Patients with joints involved at initial diagnosis>2 are at greater risk of frequent gout flare.

Gout; Flare; Frequency; Risk factors; ROC curve