To determine the association between pulse pressure and the risk of new-onset diabetes in hypertensive patients.

In this prospective cohort study, hypertensive patients from the Kailuan Study, who were diagnosed in 2006-2007 check-up, were screened for enrollment. Participants who finished the biennial follow-up until December 31, 2017 were finally included in this analysis. The primary outcome was incident diabetes development. The pulse pressure variables were divided into quartiles (Q₁-Q₄), and the Kaplan-Meier curve was used to examine and estimate the cumulative incidence of new-onset diabetes among quartiles. Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to explore the association between pulse pressure and the risk of new-onset diabetes in hypertensive patients.

During an average follow-up of 8.17 years, 6 617 new-onset diabetes were identified out of the 32 917 hypertensive patients with no history or evidence of diabetes in 2006-2007 check-up. Participants were classified into quartiles according to pulse pressure levels as follows: Q₁ group(<41 mmHg (1mmHg=0.133kPa))(n=7 995); Q₂ group(41-<51 mmHg) (n=8 196); Q₃ group (51-<61 mmHg) (n= 8 270); Q₄ group (≥61 mmHg) (n=8 456). The cumulative incidences of new-onset diabetes across the quartiles were 16.94%, 19.61%, 21.07%, and 22.33%, respectively, with the incidence density was 20.27, 23.20, 24.92, and 26.10 per 1 000 person-years, respectively. The cumulative incidence of new-onset diabetes increased in proportion with increasing pulse pressure levels (P<0.01 by the Log-rank test). After multivariate adjustment, compared with the first quartile, the hazard ratios for new-onset diabetes in the third and fourth quartiles were 1.13 (95%CI 1.04-1.22, P<0.01) and 1.14 (95%CI 1.05-1.24, P<0.01), respectively. The risk of new-onset diabetes increased 5%(HR=1.05, 95%CI 1.02-1.08, P<0.01) with the fractional pulse pressure increased per 1 SD (0.13). Findings from the three sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main results in this cohort.

Pulse pressure at baseline is positively associated with the incidence of new-onset diabetes among hypertensive individuals, and pulse pressure is an independent risk factor for the development of diabetes in hypertensive patients.

Hypertension; Diabetes mellitus; Pulse pressure