Surveillance and Trends
Analysis and forecast of burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in Asia countries between 1990 and 2019
Chen Dongyu, Yang Xiaoyu, Fan Wenlong, Wang Hongxin, Wang Pu, Hu Min, Pan Suyue, Huang Qiao, He Yuqing
Published 2022-09-23
Cite as Chin J Oncol, 2022, 44(9): 955-961. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20211027-00790
Abstract
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in major Asian countries and forecast the burden of that in China, which helps to provide reference for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer.
MethodsData on disease burden of pancreatic cancer among global and major Asian countries from on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 were collected to describe burden distribution through the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence, death and disability adjusted life years (DALY) by year, sex and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) was used to assess the trend of standardized rate. The proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer in 2019 was used to compare by age, sex and region. ARIMA model was performed with R language to predict change of age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2029.
ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 3.17/100 000 to 5.78/100 000, and the standardized death rate increased from 3.34/100 000 to 5.99/100 000. The increases exceeded other high-income Asia countries. In the past three decades, the standardized incidence, death and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer in global have increased year by year. Among the major countries in Asia, China has the highest growth rate of disease burden (EAPC of standardized incidence rates=2.32%, 95% CI: 2.10%-2.48% and EAPC of standardized death rate=2.25%, 95% CI: 2.03%-2.42%). In addition, incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China are expected to continue on the rise between 2000 and 2029 by ARIMA model. Incidence rate is expected to increase 15.92% and death rate is expected to increase 15.86%.
ConclusionsThe standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China increase year by year with an increasing trend for the burden of disease. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to rise due to the increase and aging of the population. Preventive measures should be adopted to decrease the burden of the pancreatic cancer.
Key words:
Pancreatic neoplasms; Mortality; Incidence; Attribution risk; Burden of disease; Forecast
Contributor Information
Chen Dongyu
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Yang Xiaoyu
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Fan Wenlong
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Wang Hongxin
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Wang Pu
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Hu Min
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Pan Suyue
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Huang Qiao
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
He Yuqing
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
