To describe the trend of mortality and death spectrum in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021 and provide basis for the targeted disease prevention and control.

The data were collected from the death registration reports of Shandong and 3 national retrospective surveys of death causes in Shandong. The change in levels of overall and specific deaths in Shandong in different years were analyzed based on mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate and constituent ratio of cause of death, differential decomposition was used to quantify the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to changes of mortality.

The crude mortality rate in residents in Shandong was basically stable from 1970 to 2021, and the mortality rate during 2020-2021 (732.73/100 000) was slightly higher than that during 1970-1974 (671.98/100 000). While the standardized mortality rate decreased significantly, and the mortality during 2020-2021 (183.39/100 000) decreased by 67.71% compared with that during 1970-1974 (568.00/100 000). The negative increase of population factors and the positive decrease of non-population factors reacted each other, so the mortality was relatively stable. Cardiac-cerebrovascular disease was always the leading cause of death, but the constituent ratio of death increased rapidly from 19.70% during 1970-1974 to 54.72% during 2020-2021. The rank in the causes of death changed from the fourth (11.46%) to the second (25.70%) for malignant tumor, from the seventh (5.85%) to the third (5.59%) for injury, from the second (12.87%) to the fourth (4.99%) for chronic respiratory diseases, from the third (12.27%) to the tenth (0.42%) for infectious diseases. The standardized mortality rates of the main causes of death decreased at different degrees, the standardized mortality rates of obstetrical disease, infectious disease, gastrointestinal disease and chronic respiratory disease decreased by more than 50.00%. The age distribution of deaths and the death spectrum in different age groups and in urban-rural populations changed significantly. During 2020-2021, the proportion of deaths in young people aged 0-14 years was 0.54%, which was 97.05% lower than that during 1970-1974, while the proportion of deaths in the elderly aged ≥75 years was 55.14%, which was 55.75% higher than that during 1970-1974. The rank of infectious diseases in the causes of death descended significantly in all age groups, but the ranks of injury, neuropsychiatric disease and malignant tumor rose significantly in adolescents, and the ranks of endocrine nutrition and metabolic disease rose in middle-aged and elderly people. The difference of death spectrum between urban area and rural area became less obvious and the main death causes in urban and rural residents were basically the same during 2020-2021.

The death spectrum of residents in Shandong changed significantly. Chronic and non-communicable diseases, especially cardiac-cerebrovascular disease and malignant tumor, should be the focus in disease control and prevention. The prevention and control of diseases in Shandong made remarkable achievement during 1970-2021. However, in the context of population ageing, it is suggested to strengthen the treatment, prevention of diseases and injuries related to the health of the elderly and elderly health care in the future.

Mortality; Cause of death; Differential decomposition; Trend analysis