Establishment of non-parametric probabilistic model for evaluation of Chinese dietary exposure
SUN Jin-fang, LIU Pei, CHEN Bing-wei, CHEN Qi-guang, YU Xiao-jin, WANG Can-nan, LI Jing-xin
Published 2010-03-06
Cite as Chin J Prev Med, 2010,44(03): 195-199. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2010.03.006
Abstract
Objective To establish a non-parametric probabilistic model for evaluation of Chinese dietary exposure and to improve the assessment accuracy while integrating into the global risk assessment on food safety.Methods Contamination data was from the national food contamination monitoring program during 2000-2006 ,including heavy metals,pesticides and mycotoxins,amounting to 135 contaminants with 499 commodities and 487 819 samples.Food consumption data was obtained from the national diet and nutrition survey conducted in 2002 with three consecutive days by 24-hour recall method,and 66 172 consumers were included.Monte Carlo simulation was applied to derive the intake distribution,and the uncertainty of each percentile was estimated using the Bootstrap sampling,Results Different nonparametric probabilistic models for dietary exposure evaluation on heavy metals,pesticides and some of the toxins were established for Chinese people,and intake distributions with 95% confidence intervals of these contaminants were estimated.Taking acephate as an example,the results of its model shows that,for the 7-10 year-old children,the median dietary exposure in urban and rural areas were 1.77μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1) and 2.48μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1) respectively,with a 95% confidence interval of (1.59-2.06)μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1) and (2.33-2.80)μg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1) respectively.Conclusion The non-parametric probabilistic model can quantify the variability and uncertainty of exposure assessment and improve the assessment accuracy.
Key words:
Models,statistical; Statistics,nonparametric; Diet surveys; Risk assessment
Contributor Information
SUN Jin-fang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China
LIU Pei
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China
CHEN Bing-wei
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China
CHEN Qi-guang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China
YU Xiao-jin
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China
WANG Can-nan
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China
LI Jing-xin
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University,Nanjing 210009,China