Diagnosis and Treatment of Liver Disease·Original Articles
Comparison of the prognostic values of different scores in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure
Mao Yuting, Kebinuer· Tuerxun, Pan Jinliang, Pan Kejun, Sun Lihua
Published 2023-02-25
Cite as Inter J Epidemiol Infect Dis, 2023, 50(1): 19-24. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn331340-20220514-00104
Abstract
ObjectiveTo understand the prognostic values of Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver(APASL) acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) research consortium(AARC-ACLF) and end-stage liver disease model(MELD) in patients with ACLF.
MethodsA total of 340 patients with ACLF in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 1, 2019 to July 31, 2021 were selected and divided into survival group (200 cases) and death group(140 cases) according to the 120-day survival outcome. AARC-ACLF and MELD scores were compared between the survival and death group at admission baseline, days 7, 14 and 28. The predictive values of the two scores were compared using the area under ROC curve(AUC).
ResultsThe AARC-ACLF and MELD in the death group were 9.0(8.0, 11.0) and 25.5(21.0, 31.8), which were higher than those of 8.0(7.0, 9.0) and 23.0(20.0, 26.0) in the survival group (Z=-6.44 and -4.58, P both<0.001). The AUCs obtained from the AARC-ACLF were 0.774, 0.784 and 0.833 at day 7, 14 and 28, respectively, and the optimal cut-off value of the AARC-ACLF was 9.0. The AUCs obtained from MELD were 0.711, 0.819 and 0.761 at day 7, 14 and 28, respectively, and the optimal cut-off values of the MELD were 25.0, 23.0 and 22.0, respectively. There was no significant difference in AUCs between AARC-ACLF and MELD scores(Z=1.58, 0.71 and 0.94, P=0.114, 0.481 and 0.350).
ConclusionsAARC-ACLF and MELD scoring systems are similar in predicting the prognosis of patients with ACLF at admission, day 7, 14 and 28. Dynamic calculation of AARC-ACLF and MELD scores is conducive to efficacy assessment and treatment decisions.
Key words:
Acute-on-chronic liver failure; AARC; MELD; Prognosis; Predictive index
Contributor Information
Mao Yuting
Infectious Diseases and Liver Diseases Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830000, China
Kebinuer· Tuerxun
Infectious Diseases and Liver Diseases Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830000, China
Pan Jinliang
Infectious Diseases and Liver Diseases Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830000, China
Pan Kejun
Infectious Diseases and Liver Diseases Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830000, China
Sun Lihua
Infectious Diseases and Liver Diseases Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830000, China
