This study aimed to analyze clinical factors related to arterial stiffening and establish a risk prediction nomogram of arterial stiffening in the octogenarian(≥80 years).

This study was a retrospective cross-sectional study, which enrolled the octogenarian elderly who underwent physical examination and secondary prevention intervention in the outpatient department of Chinese People′s Liberation Army General Hospital from April 2022 to August 2022. Clinical data including demographics, biochemical indicators and medical history were collected. Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was detected during the clinical visit. Participants were divided into the control group (baPWV≤1 800 cm/s) and vascular sclerosis group (baPWV>1 800 cm/s). The risk factors of arterial stiffness were analyzed by univariate and logistic regression analysis, and the nomogram model was constructed by R programming language. The predictive effect of the nomogram model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

The median age of the 525 participants was 87.0 (82.0, 92.0) years, 504 (96.0%) were male, 82 in the control group, 443 in the vascular sclerosis group. The baPWV, age, systolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure and diastolic blood pressure were significantly lower in the control group than those in the vascular sclerosis group (all P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, alanine aminotransferase and amylase were protective factors, and alkaline phosphatase and creatinine were risk factors of arterial stiffening (all P<0.05). The combined nomogram model scores including age, mean arterial pressure and the above five laboratory indicators indicated that mean arterial pressure and serum creatinine levels were strongly correlated with vascular sclerosis. The ROC curve suggested that the nomogram model had good prediction ability.

Age, mean arterial pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, amylase and creatinine are independently determinants for increased vascular stiffness. The combined prediction model in this study can provide reference for individualized clinical risk prediction of vascular sclerosis in the octogenarian elderly.

Arteriosclerosis; Pulse wave velocity; Nomogram; Aged