Original Article
Analysis of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022 based on the age-period-cohort model
Jiang Fan, Fu Zhentao, Lu Zilong, Chu Jie, Guo Xiaolei, Xu Aiqiang, Ma Jixiang
Published 2024-01-06
Cite as Chin J Prev Med, 2024, 58(1): 56-64. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20230411-00283
Abstract
ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022.
MethodsThe Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years.
ResultsFrom 2012 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong province showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 21.68% (95%CI: 19.14%-24.27%, P<0.001). The incidence of females was higher than that of males, and the incidence of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. The trend of thyroid cancer mortality was relatively stable with an AAPC of -3.04% (95%CI:-8.81%-3.09%, P=0.323). The age effect of incidence increased with age before 60 years old and decreased with age after 60 years old. The incidence peaked in the age group of 55-59. The period effect increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the cohort born before 1957 had a downward trend over time, while the cohort born after 1957 had an upward trend.
ConclusionThe incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong shows a rising trend from 2012 to 2022. Age is an important factor affecting the risk of thyroid cancer. The mortality of thyroid cancer remains stable.
Key words:
Thyroid neoplasms; Incidence; Regression analysis; Surveillance; Age-Period-cohort model
Contributor Information
Jiang Fan
Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Fu Zhentao
Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Lu Zilong
Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Chu Jie
Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Guo Xiaolei
Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
Xu Aiqiang
School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250014, China
Ma Jixiang
Institute of Preventive Medicine in Shandong University (Shandong Academy of Preventive Medicine), Jinan 250014, China
