Liver Cancer
Global liver cancer incidence and mortality and future trends from 2000 to 2020: GLOBOCAN data analysis
Wang Ruihua, Hu Ming, Yang Zhiyu, Niu Zheyun, Chen Hongsen, Zhou Xiong, Cao Guangwen
Published 2023-03-20
Cite as Chin J Hepatol, 2023, 31(3): 271-280. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn501113-20221127-00579
Abstract
ObjectiveTo compare the geographical differences and time trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality in different regions around the world so as to predict the future burden of liver cancer.
MethodsThe incidence and mortality data of liver cancer in different Human Development Index (HDI) countries from 2000 to 2020 were collected from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. The joinpoint model and annual percent change (APC) were used to analyze the liver cancer global incidence and mortality as well as future epidemic trends from 2000 to 2020.
ResultsASMR for male liver cancer was increased from 8.0/100, 000 in 2000 to 7.1/100,000 in 2015 (APC = -0.7, 95%CI: -1.2 ~ -0.3, P = 0.002), while ASMR for female liver cancer was increased from 3.0/100, 000 in 2000 to 2.8/100, 000 in 2015 (APC = -0.5, 95%CI: -0.8 ~ -0.2, P < 0.001). The ratio of male to female ASMR was 2.67:1 in 2000 and 2.51:1 in 2015, indicating a slight narrowing of the difference in mortality between men and women. In 2020, the global ASIR and ASMR for liver cancer were 9.5/100 000 and 8.7/100 000, respectively. Male ASIR and ASMR (14.1/100, 000 and 12.9/100, 000, respectively) were 2 ~ 3 times higher than females (5.2/100, 000 and 4.8/100, 000, respectively). There were significant differences between ASIR and ASMR in different HDI countries and regions (PASIR = 0.008, PASMR < 0.001), and the distributions of ASMR and ASIR were very similar. New cases and deaths were expected to increase by 58.6% (143,6744) and 60.9% (133, 5 375) in 2040, with the number of cases and deaths increasing by 39,7003 and 37,4208 in Asia, respectively.
ConclusionASMR due to liver cancer worldwide has had a downward trend between 2000 and 2015. However, the latest epidemiological status and predictions of liver cancer in 2020 indicate that prevention and control will still be a major challenge globally in the next 20 years.
Key words:
Liver cancer; Human development index; Standardized incidence rates; Standardized mortality rates
Contributor Information
Wang Ruihua
Department of Epidemiology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
Hu Ming
Department of Epidemiology, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Yang Zhiyu
Department of Epidemiology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
Niu Zheyun
Tongji University School Medicine Tongji University, Shanghai 200120, China
Chen Hongsen
Department of Epidemiology, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Zhou Xiong
Department of Epidemiology, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Cao Guangwen
Department of Epidemiology, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
