目的探索三酰甘油-葡萄糖(TyG)指数对老年缺血性脑卒中(IS)患者随访3年再发脑卒中风险的预测价值。
方法单中心、前瞻性、观察性研究。连续纳入2016年3月至2019年12月入住东营市东营区人民医院的917例老年IS患者。根据TyG的三分位数分组,包括Q 1组(TyG≤8.19,306例)、Q 2组(8.19<TyG≤8.92,306例)和Q 3组(TyG>8.92,305例)。患者出院后6、12、24和36个月进行随访,主要研究终点为再发脑卒中情况。 Kaplan- meier生存分析比较三组的再发脑卒中情况,单因素和多因素 Cox比例风险回归模型分析评估再发脑卒中的相关因素,限制性三次样条模型评估TyG指数与再发脑卒中的相关性。
结果917例老年IS患者中,男性465例(50.7%),年龄60~85岁,平均(72.1±8.1)岁。Q 1、Q 2和Q 3组空腹血糖、餐后2 h血糖、血尿酸、血肌酐、三酰甘油、TyG和左心室质量指数比较,差异均有统计学意义(均为 P<0.05)。中位随访33个月,7.6%(70/917)的患者再发脑卒中,其中Q 1、Q 2和Q 3组再发脑卒中分别有14例(4.6%)、19例(6.2%)和37例(12.1%);再发IS分别有9例(2.9%)、12例(3.9%)和25例(8.2%);再发出血性脑卒中有5例(1.6%)、7例(2.3%)和12例(3.9%)。Q 1、Q 2和Q 3组再发脑卒中发生率和再发IS发生率比较,差异均有统计学意义( Log- rank χ 2=5.467和9.414, P=0.031和0.007)。 Kaplan- meier生存分析结果显示,经多变量校正分析后,与Q 1组相比,Q 2组( HR=1.201,95% CI:1.005~1.435, P=0.044)和Q 3组( HR=2.106,95% CI:1.071~4.141, P=0.031)的再发脑卒中风险均增加。多因素 Cox比例风险回归模型分析结果提示,男性( HR=1.145)、吸烟史( HR=1.237)、高血压( HR=1.318)、血肌酐( HR=1.264)、TyG指数( HR=1.243)和他汀类药物( HR=0.931)是再发脑卒中的独立影响因素(均为 P<0.05)。限制性三次样条回归模型显示,再发脑卒中风险与TyG指数的增加呈线性正相关( P 非线性=0.643)。
结论TyG指数与老年IS患者随访3年再发脑卒中风险呈线性相关,具有一定的预测价值。
ObjectiveTo explore the predictive value of triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index on the risk of recurrent stroke within 3 years in elderly patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke (IS).
MethodsThis was a single center prospective observational study. A total of 917 elderly IS patients admitted to Dongying District Peoples' Hospital from March 2016 to December 2019 were consecutively included. Based on the tertiles of the TyG index, the patients were divided into three groups: Q 1 group (TyG≤8.19, 306 cases), Q 2 group (8.19<TyG≤8.92, 306 cases) and Q 3 group (TyG>8.92, 305 cases). Patients were followed up at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months after discharge, and the primary endpoint was recurrent stroke. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare recurrent stroke among the three groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate the related factors of recurrent stroke. A restricted cubic spline model was used to evaluate the correlation between the TyG index and recurrent stroke.
ResultsAmong the 917 elderly IS patients, 465 (50.7%) were male, aged 60 to 85 years, with an mean age of 72.1±8.1 years. There were statistical differences in fasting blood glucose, 2-hour postprandial blood glucose, blood uric acid, serum creatinine, triglyceride, TyG index, and left ventricular mass index among the three groups (all P<0.05). After a median follow-up of 33 months, 70/917 (7.6%) patients had recurrent stroke. Among them, there were 14/306 (4.6%), 19/306 (6.2%) and 37/305 (12.1%) of stroke; 9/306 (2.9%), 12/306 (3.9%) and 25/305 (8.2%) of recurrent IS, and 5/306 (1.6%), 7/306 (2.3%) and 12/305 (3.9%) of recurrent hemorrhagic stroke in Q 1, Q 2, and Q 3 groups, respectively. The rates of all types of recurrent stroke ( log- rank χ 2=5.467, P=0.031) and recurrent IS ( log- rank χ 2=9.414, P=0.007) were statistically significant among the three groups. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that after multivariate correction analysis, compared with Q 1 group, the risk of recurrent stroke in Q 2 and Q 3 groups were significantly increased ( HR=1.201, 95% CI: 1.005-1.435, P=0.044; HR=2.106, 95% CI: 1.071-4.141, P=0.031). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that male ( HR=1.145), smoking history ( HR=1.237), hypertension ( HR=1.318), serum creatinine ( HR=1.264), TyG index ( HR=1.243) and statin use ( HR=0.931) were independent influencing factors of recurrent stroke (all P<0.05). The restricted cubic spline regression model demonstrated that the risk of recurrent stroke was positively linear correlated with the TyG index ( P=0.643).
ConclusionsThe TyG index is linearly correlated with the risk of recurrent stroke in elderly IS patients during the 3 years of follow-up and has predictive value.
赵洪星,张燕,马雪莲. 三酰甘油-葡萄糖指数对老年缺血性脑卒中患者随访3年再发脑卒中风险的预测价值分析[J]. 中国心血管杂志,2025,30(01):57-62.
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-5410.2025.01.010除非特别声明,本刊刊出的所有文章不代表本刊编辑委员会的观点。
项目 | Q 1组(306例) | Q 2组(306例) | Q 3组(305例) | F/ χ 2值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
年龄(
|
72.2±9.4 | 71.7±10.1 | 72.6±8.9 | 0.694 | 0.501 |
男性[例(%)] | 140(45.8) | 157(51.3) | 168(55.1) | 5.386 | 0.068 |
饮酒[例(%)] | 48(15.7) | 44(14.4) | 53(17.4) | 1.037 | 0.595 |
吸烟史[例(%)] | 97(31.7) | 99(32.4) | 102(33.4) | 0.217 | 0.898 |
体质指数(
|
23.3±2.7 | 23.5±2.6 | 23.4±2.5 | 0.452 | 0.639 |
糖尿病[例(%)] | 55(18.0) | 59(19.3) | 63(20.7) | 0.706 | 0.703 |
高脂血症[例(%)] | 95(31.0) | 102(33.3) | 110(36.1) | 1.733 | 0.420 |
高血压[例(%)] | 83(27.1) | 88(28.8) | 93(30.5) | 0.845 | 0.655 |
冠状动脉血运重建[例(%)] | 37(12.1) | 39(12.7) | 45(14.8) | 1.027 | 0.598 |
空腹血糖(
|
5.46±0.83 | 5.52±0.74 | 5.63±0.71 | 3.928 | 0.021 |
餐后2 h血糖(
|
6.71±2.26 | 6.95±2.12 | 7.19±2.52 | 3.319 | 0.037 |
糖化血红蛋白(
|
5.21±1.14 | 5.30±1.02 | 5.37±0.88 | 1.899 | 0.150 |
血尿酸(
|
328.4±85.1 | 333.4±95.9 | 354.2±104.2 | 6.308 | 0.002 |
血肌酐(
|
85.1±27.2 | 88.1±24.1 | 90.7±18.3 | 4.363 | 0.013 |
总胆固醇(
|
4.38±1.17 | 4.40±1.15 | 4.45±1.07 | 0.312 | 0.732 |
三酰甘油(
|
2.31±0.72 | 2.38±0.81 | 2.65±0.70 | 3.555 | 0.029 |
LDL-C(
|
3.04±0.72 | 3.10±0.65 | 3.18±0.77 | 2.957 | 0.052 |
HDL-C(
|
1.26±0.32 | 1.30±0.35 | 1.32±0.40 | 2.228 | 0.108 |
TyG指数(
|
7.84±0.41 | 8.56±0.43 | 9.12±0.37 | 77.814 | <0.001 |
左心室射血分数(
|
54.7±6.8 | 54.5±7.1 | 54.1±5.9 | 0.653 | 0.521 |
左心室收缩末期内径(
|
36.2±4.5 | 36.5±4.7 | 36.8±5.1 | 1.211 | 0.298 |
左心室舒张末期内径(
|
47.3±4.7 | 47.7±5.2 | 48.3±5.7 | 2.854 | 0.058 |
左心室质量指数(
|
123.7±19.3 | 127.2±18.1 | 130.5±17.9 | 10.419 | <0.001 |
RAAS拮抗剂[例(%)] | 94(30.7) | 92(30.1) | 90(29.5) | 0.107 | 0.948 |
β受体阻滞剂[例(%)] | 72(23.5) | 64(20.9) | 73(23.9) | 0.933 | 0.627 |
抗血小板药物[例(%)] | 61(20.0) | 57(18.6) | 59(19.3) | 0.168 | 0.919 |
他汀类药物[例(%)] | 135(44.1) | 124(40.5) | 110(36.1) | 4.134 | 0.127 |
注:Q 1组,TyG指数≤8.19;Q 2组,8.19<TyG指数≤8.92;Q 3组,TyG指数>8.92;LDL-C,低密度脂蛋白胆固醇;HDL-C,高密度脂蛋白胆固醇;TyG,三酰甘油-葡萄糖;RAAS,肾素-血管紧张素-醛固酮系统
类型 | Q 1组(306例) | Q 2组(306例) | Q 3组(305例) | Log- rank χ 2值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
缺血性脑卒中 | 9(2.9) | 12(3.9) | 25(8.2) | 9.414 | 0.007 |
出血性脑卒中 | 5(1.6) | 7(2.3) | 12(3.9) | 2.807 | 0.091 |
合计 | 14(4.6) | 19(6.2) | 37(12.1) | 5.467 | 0.031 |
注:Q 1组,TyG指数≤8.19;Q 2组,8.19<TyG指数≤8.92;Q 3组,TyG指数>8.92;TyG,三酰甘油-葡萄糖
注:Q 1组,TyG指数≤8.19;Q 2组,8.19<TyG指数≤8.92;Q 3组,TyG指数>8.92;TyG,三酰甘油-葡萄糖
注:TyG,三酰甘油-葡萄糖; HR,危险比;95% CI,95%置信区间

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