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ENGLISH ABSTRACT
1990至2021年中国先天性心脏病负担变化趋势及预测研究
白子豪
王皓
安佳
王强
王洋
莫绪明
作者及单位信息
·
DOI： 10.3760/cma.j.cn112434-20240731-00186
Change trend and prediction of congenital heart disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021
Bai Zihao
Wang Hao
An Jia
Wang Qiang
Wang Yang
Mo Xuming
Authors Info & Affiliations
Bai Zihao
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Nanjing Children’s Hospital, Clinical Teaching Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210000, China
Wang Hao
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210000, China
An Jia
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Nanjing Children’s Hospital, Clinical Teaching Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210000, China
Wang Qiang
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210000, China
Wang Yang
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210000, China
Mo Xuming
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Nanjing Children’s Hospital, Clinical Teaching Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210000, China
·
DOI： 10.3760/cma.j.cn112434-20240731-00186
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摘要

目的总结并评价1990至2021年中国及全球先天性心脏病(先心病)的疾病负担时间趋势，并预测至2035年的疾病负担。

方法运用 Joinpoint回归方法研究先心病疾病的时间趋势，同时使用贝叶斯年龄－时期－队列(Bayesian age-period-cohort，BAPC)方法预测了2022至2035年中国及全球先心病所带来的疾病负担的变化。

结果1990至2021年，中国及全球的先心病伤残调整寿命年和死亡负担均有降低。尽管男性疾病负担高于女性，但差异正在逐渐减少。BAPC估计，2022至2035年，中国以及全球的先心病负担预期仍会下降，但先心病依旧是主要的健康问题。中国在减轻先心病负担上已取得明显的成果，这反映了医学技术的快速进步和公共卫生政策的改进带来的正面影响。

结论尽管先心病在过去30年间及未来至2035年仍将是重要的疾病负担，关注疾病特异性差异以制订更精准的干预措施，进一步降低先心病的负担，提高患者的生存质量和生活水平，仍是关键。

先天性心脏病;疾病负担;伤残调整寿命年;流行病学;趋势
ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo summarize and evaluate the temporal trends of the burden of congenital heart disease (CHD) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the burden of the disease up to 2035.

MethodsThe Joinpoint regression method was used to study the time trend of congenital heart disease, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort method (BAPC) was used to predict the change in disease burden due to congenital heart disease in China and globally between 2022 and 2035.

ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the disability-adjusted life years and mortality burdens of congenital heart disease have decreased in China and globally. Although the disease burden is higher in men than in women, the difference is gradually decreasing. BAPC estimates that the burden of congenital heart disease is expected to continue to decline in China and globally in 2022-2035, but congenital heart disease remains a major health problem. China has made remarkable progress in reducing the burden of congenital heart disease, which reflects the positive impact of rapid advances in medical technology and improved public health policies.

ConclusionAlthough congenital heart disease will remain a significant disease burden over the past three decades and into 2035, it is critical to focus on disease-specific differences to develop more targeted interventions to further reduce the disease burden of congenital heart disease and improve the quality of life and living standards of patients.

Congenital heart disease;Disease burden;Disability-adjusted life years;Epidemiology;Trend
Mo Xuming Email: nc.defudabe.umjn51gnimushom
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引用本文

白子豪,王皓,安佳,等. 1990至2021年中国先天性心脏病负担变化趋势及预测研究[J]. 中华胸心血管外科杂志,2025,41(03)：156-162.

DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112434-20240731-00186

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先天性心脏病(先心病)指的是胎儿在胚胎期心脏发育异常，是最常见的出生缺陷之一，对全球社会和经济负担具有重要影响，发病率0.7%～0.9% [ 1 ]。在中国，目前存在约200万先心病患者，每年新增患儿约16万 [ 2 ]。虽然先心病通常在出生时即可被诊断，但某些病例可能会延迟到儿童期甚至成年期才被发现 [ 3 ]。常见的先心病类型包括室间隔缺损、房间隔缺损、动脉导管未闭和法洛四联征，这些类型在不同地区的分布和病因存在差异 [ 4 ]。近年来，随着手术技术、介入治疗和围术期管理的不断进步，许多复杂先心病患者通过早期手术和多学科综合治疗实现了长期生存和较高的生活质量 [ 5 ]。然而，由于先心病类型众多且病情复杂，目前相关研究主要集中于小样本单中心研究或个案报告，且数据更新滞后，存在一定局限性。因此，本研究基于GBD 2021数据库，更新了中国及全球范围内先心病的疾病负担数据，评估其疾病负担、流行病学特征及未来趋势，以期为临床实践和公共卫生政策的制订提供科学依据。
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备注信息
A
莫绪明　Email: nc.defudabe.umjn51gnimushom
B

白子豪：实施研究、数据整理、论文撰写；王皓：实施研究、论文撰写；安佳：数据整理、统计学分析；王强、王洋：数据整理；莫绪明：研究指导、论文修改

C
所有作者均声明不存在利益冲突
D
国家自然科学基金项目 (82270310)
江苏省重点研发计划 (BE2023662)
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